Stock markets, in general, have continued their upward trajectory. Share prices, benefiting from the extraordinary monetary policy that Central Banks have implemented via Quantitative Easing, have now been on a bull run since March 2009, the second longest in history. There has been relatively little volatility in markets. Furthermore bond markets have been in a bull market for the last 3 decades, benefitting from falling interest rates, which are now effectively 0%. Cash is still yielding nothing. So where to from here?
I think we are at the start of a new stage in the economic cycle, one in which there is more risk to the downside than of upside potential, and I would suggest that investment portfolios at this point in time should therefore be defensively tilted.